The Syrian crisis has subsided. The world goes on.
In the long run, the future of Europe and China is far more important than Syria. Germany has less than 6% unemployment, Spain more than 25%. Can a union so constituted long endure? China's wage rates are now higher than Mexico's wage rates. If China can't compete on wages, who can? The answers will define the world.
For Stratfor, politics, economics and war hold equal value in arriving at this definition. It is impossible to understand the world without considering all three drivers. In the last few weeks, the President of the United States was obsessed with them in the context of a showdown with Russia in Syria. Stratfor was too – but with a view towards what lies beyond Syria.
While we generated possible war scenarios for Syria, we examined the looming European banking crisis caused by defaulting consumer debt and deepened our understanding of what we call the Post-China 16 – the 16 countries that will replace China in the global marketplace. Going from war to economics and tying them both into political actions is what we do.